Cattle market outlook
Sell this week or wait? A head-weighted view of where prices are, where they're heading, and which stockyards are paying most right now.
This week so far · week of Aug 31
1 sale day reported
$344.78 / cwt
-1.3% vs last complete week
78 head
Early signal only — full-week picture not yet known.
Where prices are
| Period | Week of | $/cwt | vs previous week |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week (partial*) | Aug 31 | $344.78 | -1.3% |
| Last week | Aug 24 | $349.26 | -6.0% |
| 2 weeks ago | Aug 17 | $371.44 | -2.0% |
| 3 weeks ago | Aug 10 | $379.16 | -3.1% |
| 4 weeks ago | Aug 3 | $391.30 | +3.3% |
| 12 weeks ago | Jun 1 | $427.28 | — |
*1 sale day reported so far this week. The week-of number updates as more sale days come in.
Last 12 weeks + next 4
Basis — local cash vs CME front-month
last 12 overlapping weeksBasis is narrower than usual ($-38.19 vs avg). Local cash unusually weak vs CME.
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Local cash
$349.26
CME front-month
$330.94
Current basis
+$18.32
Rank vs history
0th %ile
Avg basis $56.51 · range $18.32 to $80.53. A persistently wide positive basis means your region consistently pays above the national feeder benchmark (smaller/younger cattle, supply premium, or regional demand).
2-week outlook
target week of Sep 7Small movement expected; timing unlikely to matter much.
Median $352.92/cwt · move +1.0% (+$20/head @ 550 lb) · spread $19.52/cwt · confidence low
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Recent pace
$334.56
$-14.70/cwt (-4.2%) · $81/head
Extrapolates the last 4-week slope (-7.35 $/cwt/wk).
Simplest method. Trends reverse on news.
Seasonality-adjusted
$352.92
+$3.66/cwt (+1.0%) · +$20/head
Historical Aug→Sep typically moves +1.0% (2 yrs of data).
Averages can hide big single-year swings (e.g. drought years).
CME curve + basis
$354.08
+$4.83/cwt (+1.4%) · +$27/head
Sep 2026 futures @ $321.45 plus your local basis of $+32.63/cwt.
Assumes your cash-vs-CME basis holds; basis can widen or tighten.
Three independent methods. When they agree, confidence is higher. When they disagree, the direction is unclear — no single number replaces judgment.
How accurate have these methods been?
last 12 × 2-week windowsOver the last 12 windows with this filter, Seasonality had the lowest typical error (±$17.00/cwt). Direction was correct 33% of the time.
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| Method | Avg error | Bias | Direction right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonality | ±$17.00 | +$5.71 | 33% |
| No-change baseline | ±$17.83 | +$12.22 | 0% |
| Recent pace | ±$20.95 | +$0.15 | 42% |
Rolling walk-forward test: for each of the last 12 weeks, run each method as-if that week were "now," compare projected to actual. CME + basis is excluded here — proper backtest needs historical forward-curve snapshots we don't yet store.
Historical context — same week, prior years
ISO week 35 · 2 yrs of dataThis week at $349.26 is 8.3% lower than same week last year ($381.03).
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| Year | $/cwt | vs now | Head |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $252.37 | +38.4% | 426 |
| 2025 | $381.03 | -8.3% | 258 |
| 2026 (now) | $349.26 | — | — |
Same ISO-week price head-weighted across each prior year. A single number can mislead on a strong trend — seeing each year separately shows whether this year is exceptional or just the next step in a longer move.
Best stockyards · week of Aug 24
| # | Market | $/cwt | Priced head | Sale size | Sale day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Florence, AL | $366.21 | 16 | 710 | Mon |
| 2 | New Brockton, AL | $361.74 | 21 | 335 | Mon |
| 3 | Uniontown, AL | $356.97 | 71 | 880 | Tue |
| 4 | Dothan, AL | $347.37 | 31 | 229 | Mon |
| 5 | Roanoke, AL | $345.52 | 42 | 493 | Wed |
Priced head: head in this class/weight slice. Sale size: total cattle sold at this market for the week (all classes).
Fresh sales · this week so far
| Market | Sold | $/cwt | Head | vs last wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ashville, AL | Mon Aug 31 | $348.17 | 16 | +0.4% |
| Florence, AL | Mon Aug 31 | $346.89 | 4 | -5.3% |
| New Brockton, AL | Mon Aug 31 | $345.73 | 24 | -4.4% |
| Dothan, AL | Mon Aug 31 | $342.26 | 34 | -1.5% |