Cattle market outlook
Sell this week or wait? A head-weighted view of where prices are, where they're heading, and which stockyards are paying most right now.
This week so far · week of Oct 12
3 sale days reported
$373.23 / cwt
-0.7% vs last complete week
478 head
Early signal only — full-week picture not yet known.
Where prices are
| Period | Week of | $/cwt | vs previous week |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week (partial*) | Oct 12 | $373.23 | -0.7% |
| Last week | Oct 5 | $376.01 | +3.7% |
| 2 weeks ago | Sep 28 | $362.70 | -2.7% |
| 3 weeks ago | Sep 21 | $372.72 | -0.1% |
| 4 weeks ago | Sep 14 | $373.05 | +3.2% |
| 12 weeks ago | Jul 20 | $407.31 | -3.8% |
*3 sale days reported so far this week. The week-of number updates as more sale days come in.
Last 13 weeks + next 4
Basis — local cash vs CME front-month
last 13 overlapping weeksBasis is on the wide side ($-0.11 above avg).
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Local cash
$376.01
CME front-month
$338.88
Current basis
+$37.14
Rank vs history
75th %ile
Avg basis $37.24 · range $18.32 to $74.28. A persistently wide positive basis means your region consistently pays above the national feeder benchmark (smaller/younger cattle, supply premium, or regional demand).
2-week outlook
target week of Oct 19Small movement expected; timing unlikely to matter much.
Median $377.94/cwt · move +0.5% (+$11/head @ 550 lb) · spread $7.22/cwt · confidence moderate
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Recent pace
$383.23
+$7.22/cwt (+1.9%) · +$40/head
Extrapolates the last 4-week slope (3.61 $/cwt/wk).
Simplest method. Trends reverse on news.
Seasonality-adjusted
$376.01
+$0.00/cwt (+0.0%) · +$0/head
Historical Oct→Oct typically moves +0.0% (7 yrs of data).
Averages can hide big single-year swings (e.g. drought years).
CME curve + basis
$377.94
+$1.93/cwt (+0.5%) · +$11/head
Oct 2026 futures @ $343.98 plus your local basis of $+33.96/cwt.
Assumes your cash-vs-CME basis holds; basis can widen or tighten.
Three independent methods. When they agree, confidence is higher. When they disagree, the direction is unclear — no single number replaces judgment.
How accurate have these methods been?
last 12 × 2-week windowsOver the last 12 windows with this filter, No-change baseline had the lowest typical error (±$18.80/cwt). Direction was correct 0% of the time.
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| Method | Avg error | Bias | Direction right |
|---|---|---|---|
| No-change baseline | ±$18.80 | +$9.63 | 0% |
| Recent pace | ±$19.61 | $-2.83 | 50% |
| Seasonality | ±$22.20 | +$3.56 | 42% |
Rolling walk-forward test: for each of the last 12 weeks, run each method as-if that week were "now," compare projected to actual. CME + basis is excluded here — proper backtest needs historical forward-curve snapshots we don't yet store.
Historical context — same week, prior years
ISO week 41 · 5 yrs of dataThis week at $376.01 is 6.0% lower than same week last year ($399.95).
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| Year | $/cwt | vs now | Head |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $135.64 | +177.2% | 51 |
| 2022 | $152.43 | +146.7% | 82 |
| 2023 | $239.93 | +56.7% | 77 |
| 2024 | $262.84 | +43.1% | 248 |
| 2025 | $399.95 | -6.0% | 223 |
| 2026 (now) | $376.01 | — | — |
Same ISO-week price head-weighted across each prior year. A single number can mislead on a strong trend — seeing each year separately shows whether this year is exceptional or just the next step in a longer move.
Best stockyards · week of Oct 5
| # | Market | $/cwt | Priced head | Sale size | Sale day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uniontown, AL | $410.00 | 75 | 2,642 | Tue |
| 2 | Arab, AL | $389.86 | 34 | 503 | Tue |
| 3 | New Brockton, AL | $370.27 | 12 | 238 | Mon |
| 4 | Opp, AL | $370.00 | 20 | 184 | Tue |
| 5 | Roanoke, AL | $366.80 | 38 | 868 | Wed |
Priced head: head in this class/weight slice. Sale size: total cattle sold at this market for the week (all classes).
Fresh sales · this week so far
| Market | Sold | $/cwt | Head | vs last wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arab, AL | Tue Oct 13 | $414.00 | 91 | — |
| Florence, AL | Mon Oct 12 | $395.47 | 24 | — |
| Roanoke, AL | Wed Oct 14 | $371.12 | 47 | +1.2% |
| Arab, AL | Tue Oct 13 | $369.26 | 10 | -5.3% |
| Uniontown, AL | Tue Oct 13 | $368.75 | 75 | +2.4% |
| Opp, AL | Tue Oct 13 | $368.30 | 17 | -0.5% |
| Letohatchee, AL | Tue Oct 13 | $364.21 | 91 | +2.7% |
| New Brockton, AL | Mon Oct 12 | $363.70 | 4 | -1.8% |
| Moulton, AL | Wed Oct 14 | $361.38 | 8 | -5.2% |
| Russellville, AL | Mon Oct 12 | $360.00 | 2 | — |
| Dothan, AL | Mon Oct 12 | $357.89 | 23 | +0.5% |
| Brundidge, AL | Wed Oct 14 | $356.89 | 21 | -1.7% |
| Ashville, AL | Mon Oct 12 | $352.74 | 18 | -12.9% |
| Frisco City, AL | Wed Oct 14 | $343.59 | 6 | +13.3% |
| Cullman, AL | Tue Oct 13 | $337.71 | 35 | -9.4% |
1 more market reported this week — narrow the region filter to see them.