Cattle market outlook
Buy this week or wait? A head-weighted view of where prices are, where they're heading, and which stockyards are cheapest right now.
This week so far · week of Jul 13
3 sale days reported
$423.41 / cwt
-1.7% vs last complete week
331 head
Early signal only — full-week picture not yet known.
Where prices are
| Period | Week of | $/cwt | vs previous week |
|---|---|---|---|
| This week (partial*) | Jul 13 | $423.41 | -1.7% |
| Last week | Jul 6 | $430.81 | -4.6% |
| 2 weeks ago | Jun 22 | $451.46 | +2.8% |
| 3 weeks ago | Jun 15 | $438.98 | +1.2% |
| 4 weeks ago | Jun 8 | $433.85 | +1.5% |
| 12 weeks ago | Apr 13 | $480.61 | — |
*3 sale days reported so far this week. The week-of number updates as more sale days come in.
Last 12 weeks + next 4
Basis — local cash vs CME front-month
last 12 overlapping weeksBasis is narrower than usual ($-12.11 vs avg). Local cash unusually weak vs CME.
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Local cash
$430.81
CME front-month
$358.79
Current basis
+$72.02
Rank vs history
9th %ile
Avg basis $84.13 · range $71.77 to $116.66. A persistently wide positive basis means your region consistently pays above the national feeder benchmark (smaller/younger cattle, supply premium, or regional demand).
2-week outlook
target week of Jul 20Methods suggest roughly flat prices. Buy when convenient.
Median $431.41/cwt · move +0.1% (+$3/head @ 550 lb) · spread $1.76/cwt · confidence high
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Recent pace
$432.57
+$1.76/cwt (+0.4%) · +$10/head
Extrapolates the last 4-week slope (0.88 $/cwt/wk).
Simplest method. Trends reverse on news.
Seasonality-adjusted
$430.81
+$0.00/cwt (+0.0%) · +$0/head
Historical Jul→Jul typically moves +0.0% (2 yrs of data).
Averages can hide big single-year swings (e.g. drought years).
CME curve + basis
$431.41
+$0.60/cwt (+0.1%) · +$3/head
Aug 2026 futures @ $347.48 plus your local basis of $+83.93/cwt.
Assumes your cash-vs-CME basis holds; basis can widen or tighten.
Three independent methods. When they agree, confidence is higher. When they disagree, the direction is unclear — no single number replaces judgment.
How accurate have these methods been?
last 12 × 2-week windowsOver the last 12 windows with this filter, Seasonality had the lowest typical error (±$21.17/cwt). Direction was correct 58% of the time.
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| Method | Avg error | Bias | Direction right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seasonality | ±$21.17 | +$6.07 | 58% |
| No-change baseline | ±$23.83 | +$4.17 | 0% |
| Recent pace | ±$31.42 | +$2.33 | 33% |
Rolling walk-forward test: for each of the last 12 weeks, run each method as-if that week were "now," compare projected to actual. CME + basis is excluded here — proper backtest needs historical forward-curve snapshots we don't yet store.
Historical context — same week, prior years
ISO week 28 · 2 yrs of dataThis week at $430.81 is 21.0% higher than same week last year ($356.12).
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| Year | $/cwt | vs now | Head |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $292.66 | +47.2% | 421 |
| 2025 | $356.12 | +21.0% | 405 |
| 2026 (now) | $430.81 | — | — |
Same ISO-week price head-weighted across each prior year. A single number can mislead on a strong trend — seeing each year separately shows whether this year is exceptional or just the next step in a longer move.
Cheapest stockyards · week of Jul 6
| # | Market | $/cwt | Priced head | Sale size | Sale day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashville, AL | $382.60 | 11 | 136 | Mon |
| 2 | New Brockton, AL | $414.95 | 26 | 475 | Mon |
| 3 | Letohatchee, AL | $430.87 | 112 | 1,145 | Tue |
| 4 | Roanoke, AL | $435.68 | 19 | 812 | Wed |
| 5 | Brundidge, AL | $437.06 | 17 | 436 | Wed |
Priced head: head in this class/weight slice. Sale size: total cattle sold at this market for the week (all classes).
Fresh sales · this week so far
| Market | Sold | $/cwt | Head | vs last wk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lineville, AL | Tue Jul 14 | $400.61 | 8 | -2.7% |
| Ashville, AL | Mon Jul 13 | $406.32 | 11 | +6.2% |
| Brundidge, AL | Wed Jul 15 | $406.45 | 18 | -7.0% |
| Opp, AL | Tue Jul 14 | $407.11 | 14 | -8.4% |
| Frisco City, AL | Wed Jul 15 | $409.80 | 5 | -1.7% |
| Letohatchee, AL | Tue Jul 14 | $413.46 | 89 | -4.0% |
| Russellville, AL | Mon Jul 13 | $423.12 | 8 | +8.5% |
| Roanoke, AL | Wed Jul 15 | $424.72 | 65 | -2.5% |
| New Brockton, AL | Mon Jul 13 | $425.50 | 2 | +2.5% |
| Moulton, AL | Wed Jul 15 | $431.15 | 20 | — |
| Kilpatrick, AL | Wed Jul 15 | $432.49 | 26 | +16.0% |
| Arab, AL | Tue Jul 14 | $435.02 | 5 | -3.2% |
| Dothan, AL | Mon Jul 13 | $441.44 | 34 | -1.1% |
| Cullman, AL | Tue Jul 14 | $446.73 | 21 | — |
| Florence, AL | Mon Jul 13 | $467.00 | 5 | +5.2% |